Thursday, November 1, 2012

Georgia Southern Preview: The Next Step


Each day from October 23-November 3, there will be a blogger/fan previewing their team in this space. For previous previews and the future schedule, click here.
The Georgia Southern Eagles are coming off the second largest turnaround in Southern Conference history and find themselves looking to build off the momentum gained from last season.  After winning only one conference game in the 2010-2011 season the Eagles finished with a 12-6 conference record in 2011-2012, barely missing 2nd place in the South Division.  Georgia Southern found themselves above .500 in March for the first time since the 2007-2008 season when they beat UTC in the first round of the SoCon tournament to improve to 15-14.  It was also the Eagles first SoCon tournament victory in seven years.

For good reason there is plenty of optimism around Statesboro that the Eagles can take things to the next level in coach Charlton Young’s fourth year despite losing senior starters Willie Powers (10.8 ppg, 5.4 ast, 4.0 reb) and Ben Drayton (11.9 ppg, 3.0 ast, 1.6 stl) to graduation, as well as rising Sophomore center Tyrone Brown (2.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg) who was dismissed from the team over the summer.   Georgia Southern returns 7 players who were a part of the rotation last season and adds four newcomers this year.  The core of the team will be the highly praised junior class that Coach Young brought in two years ago.  The five players from that class have combined to play 278 games, with 145 starts, and over 6000 minutes in their first 2 years on campus.  This is the year that Eagles fans hope the growing pains of the past two years start to pay off.   

However Georgia Southern will find themselves without one of the stars of that class for the first part of the season, as junior Jelani Hewitt (10.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) has been declared academically ineligible for the fall semester.  Hewitt has played in all 62 games for the Eagles the past 2 years and started 58 of them.  In addition to being the Eagles best long range shooter he is also the best on ball defender.  If the Eagles are going to make a run at the conference title it will be imperitive that Hewitt works his way back onto the court for conference play. 

Frontcourt

The Eagles have arguably the most athletic roster in the Southern Conference and it all starts with the most athletic player in the conference in Junior forward Eric Ferguson who finished 5th in the league in scoring (15.4 ppg), 3rd in rebounding (7.2 rpg),  4th in blocked shots (1.1 bpg), 4th in steals (1.5 spg), and 4th in field goal percentage (.568) last year.  Known for his monster dunks, Ferguson spent the summer attending both the Kevin Durant and Lebron James skills camp where he was one of only 20 college players invited.  Expect the offense to run through Ferguson, because it is no secret that the Eagles will go as far as this NBA prospect will take them this year.

But Ferguson won’t have to do it all himself.  Returning at center is Senior Cam Baskerville (4 ppg, 3 rpg).  He was Coach Young’s first signee 4 years ago and has played in 87 games with 45 starts in his 3 years in Statesboro.  Also returning are 6’6” Junior Marvin Baynham (2.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg),  6’7” Junior Sam Mike, and 6’8” Sophomore Kameron Dunnican (0.7 ppg, 1.3 rpg).  Baynham has played in every game the past 2 years spending most of his time in Statesboro as a spark plug off the bench, especially on the boards where he averaged 3.5 rebounds a game last year in only 16 minutes of action.  Dunnican was the #31 ranked center in the nation coming out of high school according to ESPN.  He played in all 30 games last year and averaged 6 minutes a game.  Despite the limited action he finished 2nd on the team in blocks and showed flashes of why the recruiting services were so high on him.

Backcourt
 
The Eagles backcourt will be led by junior Jelani Hewitt when he (hopefully) returns for the spring semester.  Hewitt is not only a great defender with a ton of experience, but he is also one of the best shooters in the SoCon, finishing 7th in 3 point field goal percentage (.396) last year.  Until then the Eagles will most likely rely on former Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Player of the Year and HBCU National Player of the Year C.J. Reed to do the majority of the scoring in the backcourt.  Reed sat out at UCF last year after transferring from Bethune-Cookman, where he averaged 18.8 ppg and 4.8 assist as a junior, and he will be eligible to play for the Eagles this year as a senior.  Also expected to take on a bigger role is junior Tre Bussey (5.4 ppg) who has played in 60 games the past 2 years.  Coach Young refers to Bussey as the Eagles Jason Terry because of the spark he provides off the bench and it’s a role that Bussey has embraced.  The sharp shooting junior (.388 3 point %) only played 15.4 minutes a game last year, but with the departure of Powers and Drayton that number is expected to go back up to around the 22 minutes a game he played as a freshman.  Sophomore Jessie Pernell (2.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg) was a nice surprise in conference play last season at guard.  After being used sparingly in the non-conference season, Pernell’s minutes increased in conference play to the point that he averaged 20 minutes played in the final 5 games of the season.  At 6’1” he can play the point or the two guard and is also a very good defender. 


Coach Young also signed three players to help bolster the backcourt.  JUCO point guard Brian Holmes averaged 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists a game while shooting 39% from beyond the arc for Santa Fe C.C. last year.  Chris Daniels is a 6’5” swingman who originally signed with GSU last year but after failing to qualify he spent a year at Faith Baptist Prep School in Florida.  The most highly ranked player in the class is 6’5” shooting guard Cleon Roberts from Miami, FL.  ESPN calls Roberts
an athletic SG who has an excellent stroke from 3 and ranked him as the #92 shooting guard in the country.

3 Questions For 2012-2013 Eagles
 
1.       Who will play the Point Guard position?

With the departure of Willie Powers and Ben Drayton so goes the two players who have been in charge of running the point guard position for Coach Young since his arrival in Statesboro 3 years ago.  The question isn’t as much IF somebody will step up at point guard but WHO it will be.  The obvious answer looks to be the transfer C.J. Reed.  He was MEAC Player of the Year two years ago running the point position for Bethune-Cookman.  But don’t be surprised to see the Junior Brian Holmes or Sophomore Jessie Pernell take over at point to allow Reed to take on more of a scoring role.  Jelani Hewitt could also be a possibility here if he is back in January.  No matter who it is the Eagles should be in good hands, but this is something that Coach Young will need to get settled before getting into the meat of the conference schedule. 

2.       Who will step up along side Eric Ferguson in the frontcourt?

Ferguson is personally at the top of the league in blocks and offensive rebounding but as a team Georgia Southern is near the bottom of the league in those two categories.   The Eagles have some very good players in Senior Cam Baskerville and Junior Marvin Baynham, but both guys are limited in what they can do at 6’6”.   This is where the Eagles need Kameron Dunnican to step up and be that 2nd defensive presence and rebounder in the paint.  At a rangy 6’8” Dunnican is able to do things that nobody else on the team but Ferguson can do.  Last year the Eagles were 9th in the conference in blocked shots and 11th in offensive rebounding percentage.  Ferguson had half the team’s blocks by himself last year (34) and ¼ of the team’s offensive rebounds (65), but Dunnican’s blocks per minute played and offensive rebounds per minute played were at the same rate as Ferguson.  So if Dunnican is ready to give the Eagles 20+ minutes a night he could really bolster the frontcourt.

3.       What are the keys to GSU winning the Southern Conference?

The number one thing that has plagued all three of Coach Young’s teams has been turnovers.  The Eagles were 11th in the SoCon last year with 15.1 turnovers a game and that was the lowest of the three years.  The Eagles didn’t even get a shot up on a staggering 22% of their possessions last year.  At the rate Georgia Southern forces turnovers, if they can just get to the middle of the pack in committing turnovers the Eagles could post a +2 or higher turnover differential.  It would also help with not allowing as many easy baskets, which leads us to….

Another problem the Eagles have had under Coach Young, but has been improving as well, is field goal defense.  Because the Eagles slow the game down so much their #2 ranked scoring defense is a little misleading as the team field goal percentage defense was actually 10th in the league last year at .455.  Again, if the Eagles can get down to just around the middle of the pack at .430 it would make a huge difference.  One of the keys to doing that is for the Eagles not to allow as many easy baskets as they did last year by simply not getting back on defense in time. 

The final key is for the Eagles to not only make more free throws but get to the line more as well.  The Eagles were 8th in the SoCon in free throw percentage but took the third fewest free throws of any SoCon team.  Davidson actually made as many free throws per game as Georgia Southern attempted last year.  Getting their percentage made and free throws attempted to just the league average would add 2.5 points a game to their team total.

When you look at those keys it’s easy to see why so many are optimistic about Georgia Southern this year.  If the Eagles improve to just the middle of the pack in the three areas they have been bad at, but also improving, in the past couple years it would be worth almost a 10 point swing and GSU will give Davidson a run for their money in the Southern Conference this season.

By half-n-half, GSUFans.com

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