Going into the 2012-13 basketball season, the Appalachian State Mountaineers find themselves once again as one of the most mysterious teams in the league. A team rife with turnover struggled last season with a senior-laden crew that had gone through two coaching transitions in their time. It's safe to say that last season was a colossal disappointment. Omar Carter, the preseason SoCon Player of the Year didn't even make the first, second or third team all-conference. Ike Butts never fully realized his potential and JUCO's Mitch Woods and Petey Hausley didn't contribute much.
This year's motley crew come in with little expectations and an embattled leader. The gamble that was the hiring of Jason Capel in April 2010 has came up snake eyes so far. After a 16-15 opening season with Donald Sims, a team with seemingly more talent and more expectations faltered to a 13-18 finish. Now after two seasons of constant upheaval, Capel has a team of players he brought it minus Nathan Healy.
RETURNING PLAYERS
The Mountaineers only return five players from last year's squad in seniors Nathan Healy and Jamal Trice, junior Brian Okam and the sophomore guard duo of Tab Hamilton and Mike Neal. Out of those five, Hamilton, Neal and Trice were starters and in the top five on the team in PPG. Healy is the leading returning rebounder, with 3.5 per game last season (fourth overall) and Neal was the overall assist leader last season with 3.1 per game.
NEW FACES
There are ten new faces to the ASU team this year, nine of whom are eligible to play this year. Dustin Clarke, transfer from Hartford, has to sit out this season due to NCAA transfer rules. The highlight of this group is Xavier transfer Jay Canty (more on him later). The departures of underclassmen GJ Vilarino and Rodney Milum created extra holes to a team already in transition. The additions of JUCO transfer Tevin Baskin and former Radford player Tommy Spagnolo (both juniors) should add a much-needed post presence. Baskin scored 23, had four blocks and two steals in the Black and Gold Scrimmage to lead all scorers and Spagnolo grabbed a game-high seven rebounds. Out of the group of six freshmen joining the team, Michael Obacha, originally from Nigeria as is Okam, showed the most promise in the scrimmage before going out with an ankle injury.
The other new freshman are undersized guard Chris Burgress, 6'8” forward Rantavious Gilbert and guards Bennett Rutherford and Frank Eaves. Then you have 21-year-old red-shirt freshman Jonathan Frye, whose tale I chronicled earlier this month.
SCHEDULE
This schedule was clearly made for a team not expected to do a lot. Only three D1 non-conference home games in High Point, Duquense and Presbyterian. So as they were two years ago, this team will be on the road a bit. After the High Point home opener (I'm not counting Montreat due to their sub-DI status), the team faces a week of challenges at Campbell, East Carolina and Virginia Tech. At this point, winning one of those would be a good step. Then after the home against against Duquense, the Apps travel to face Mizzou, where we all know what is expected to happen there. Then comes an interesting one-game foray into SoCon play with a trip to WCU the following weekend. In my opinion, you either do two December conference games or none. After that, the team stays on the road with trips to UMKC and then USC (East), both potential winnable games. After the seasonal game against Presbyterian, the Apps enter the wonderful world of conference play (there's a game against NAIA Milligan in there, but again it doesn't count).
This is a team that will take some lumps in the early season and has potential to improve by the time conference play starts. Out of the South Division teams, ASU gets the cream as they play Davidson and GSU twice and travel to CofC. After a brutal late January/early February stretch, the home stretch could be favorable with most North Division games left plus The Citadel and Furman at home.
THREE QUESTIONS
1) Will Jay Canty live up to the hype?
After the unmitigated failure that was Gonzaga transfer GJ Vilarino, this year brings in Xavier transfer Jay Canty. After his dominant performance in the first half of the latest scrimmage (he was held back in the second half), he looks like the best player on the team. Canty could be that spark that the team needs to make big runs and take a game over, but it remains to be seen if he could be that player who prevents the big slumps that happened last year.
2) Will Brian Okam go from being a project to a contributor?
Speaking of transfers, Rutgers transfer Brian Okam enters his second season with the Black and Gold with a lot of eyes on him, and not just because he's seven-feet tall. With the graduation of Ike Butts, Okam finds himself as the only true center on the squad. Word is that Okam has put in a lot of hard work in the off-season but most people remain skeptical. His clunky play was the main reason he only appeared in 15 games last season and maintained his “project” status. His physical gifts will primarily be used on defense and he should be a contributor there but it remains to be seen if he is a liability on offense. In the last scrimmage, he started out rough but finished strong. If it's clicks for him mentally, there's no ceiling to his potential.
3) Can this team show any consistency?
Perfect example of the inconsistencies was in Asheville last March with the Apps scoring 60 points in the second half over CofC and then not making a shot in the final 10 minutes the following day against UNCG. Another example is the fact that last year there were 13 different starting lineups took the court in ASU's 31 games. In Capel's first year, he had the benefit of inheriting Mr Consistency Donald Sims who helped the team to the level they were expected to be at. Last year he had a group of seniors that showed no consistency at all with a lot more potential that went unrealized. Capel wants his teams to be a tough and physical but knows that they have to have consistency in order to navigate this long season, especially in a conference that is looking better this year.
FINAL ANALYSIS
38-0, SoCon Champs, NCAA Champs. The seismic rift caused by this turn of events creates a fault which Dick Vitale falls in. The explosion of volcanoes upon the end of the 90-43 victory over NC State in the National Championship sends Teddy Valentine into orbit somewhere around Jupiter. The meltdown of Jay Bilas' brain triggers a meteorological event so massive that it melts the polar ice caps and sends the planet into an immediate ice age and thus the Appalachian State Mountaineers are the last ever NCAA champs. As it turns out, the Mayans were only off by four and a half months.
In reality, the prognosis is that this team could be like Western was last year. A losing record going into February and then getting on a hot streak at the end and gaining confidence going into the next year. This team could take some lumps early in the season and will show their character going into conference play. The team has to play disciplined basketball and not let it turn into a streetball game where they rack up fouls and are prone to long scoring droughts. For Capel, he has the hottest seat in the conference next to Shulman goinginto the third year of his four-year contract. For his sake, there needs to be improvement this year. Otherwise it'll be another desolate season in the Holmes Cavern for men's hoops and patience is already running thin.
By T-Dog, YosefsCabin.com
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